Orion Pictures
Evil robots need not apply.
Approx. 1000 words; 4.5 minutes read time
The current COVID-19 pandemic has revealed excessive weaknesses in our supply chains. Everyday services have buckled under the pressure. Once well-stocked store shelves are empty. And speedy at-home delivery has slowed in this time of need. But Artificial Intelligence (AI) promises to help organize the chaotic world of global supply chains. And no, this does not mean machines will soon take over the planet. Hopefully not, anyway.
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If you started making bread at home since the COVID-19 pandemic began, you are not alone. Millions of people lately have taken up this centuries-old baking tradition. All this goodness rising in American kitchens comes at a cost, though. Home bread-making has decimated grocery stocks of flour and yeast. It seems all that leavening has leveled the baking aisles in our neighborhood markets.
The reason for the shortages: demand has outpaced availability. There's plenty of flour and yeast out there, so it's not a strict supply and demand issue. Instead, there is not enough flour and yeast directed to the consumer market. The same was true of toilet paper back when this pandemic began. There was plenty of TP then as there is now. But it wasn't packaged and shipped for the consumer to buy.
These aren't supply issues. These are supply chain issues.
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Supply chain weaknesses are not new. Challenges with getting stuff to those who want and need it are universal.
Here's an absurd example: there's a global sand shortage. Yes, sand. We use sand in everything from concrete to computer chips, and we don't have access to enough globally. No, we aren't running out of it. A trip to the beach or desert will illustrate there is plenty of sand to be had. But the global sand supply chains that feed demand are inadequate.
Sometimes these problems are not only absurd like with sand, but also dire, as with food. Right now, over 800 million people are suffering from malnutrition and hunger. The problem is not about producing enough good food. We've got so much already that 1.3 billion tons go to waste each year. Instead, it's about getting the available food to the millions of hungry mouths. Yes, global hunger is a supply chain issue too.
These issues are happening right now, every day, not because of some global crisis. Instead, they are happening because we don't address demands as they arise. And we are not preparing for scenarios where needs will shift, as in times of global crisis like now.
But disasters do indeed make matters worse.
COVID-19 has given us a taste of this, even though we saw it coming. Now, imagine if something globally cataclysmic - without warning - hit us.
Almost all disaster scenarios foretell failed supply chains with humanity running amuck. In these tales, aliens, asteroids, zombies, or viruses don't kill us off. Instead, we destroy ourselves as we run out of things we need to survive.
Any doomsday prepper will tell you: it's not the attack; it's the aftermath.
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So why are there supply chain issues anyway? Most, if not all, persist because of archaic systems encumbered by bureaucracies. Yes, people getting in the way of other people. Supply chain limits are rarely technical problems outside our control. Instead, a lack of imagination seems to be the most significant limiting factor.
Could AI help us solve the supply chain problem?
Several big-name companies are betting on it. Amazon, for example, is using AI to collect data about existing supply systems right now. Drone deliveries we hear a lot about. But Amazon is also researching everything from autonomous vehicles to AI-managed distribution. And they are also collecting heaps of data on what we, the consumers, are consuming. Hopefully for good, right?
It makes economic sense for them, of course, to make things more efficient. But in the ideal, all humanity could benefit. If it goes well (a big if, to be sure), tomorrow's automated world will free humans to do other things.
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Supply chains could be so well-automated one day that machines could build themselves. It takes thousands of people to develop, source materials, and create computers. But advances in AI could streamline all this. Limiting processes, like extracting rare-earth elements (REEs) used in electronics, could be automated. AI could also control the supply and shipping of REEs for manufacturing. From start to finish - raw materials to the finished robot - could be done without humans.
If we could enable machines to build themselves, everything after that would be easy.
This all sounds a little scary, though. If we help machines overcome the limits that people present, what stops them from eliminating us? After all, limits in REE supply chains are the main reasons "evil robots" wouldn't take over the world. It takes too many people to get the stuff needed to make robots into robots in the first place. So why would we remove this obstacle?
We'd do so because a better scenario exists.
AI in the future will be beneficial, as it is now. AI affords us "superhuman" processing ability, where we create solutions for many very human problems. With AI, we can see workflow inefficiencies and use this knowledge to smooth things out. People will remain part of the chain, but we will use humans wisely and more humanely. Automation will increase, and things like packaging and delivery will be autonomous. Resource extraction and allocation will also be improved. Removing humans from these dangerous tasks is the most significant promise of technology, after all.
Best of all, AI will create intricate supply chains that favor local sourcing. Large scale systems cannot do this fine-scale tuning right now. Instead of the one size fits all model we have now, AI could account for localized opportunities. We'll thus ramp up small-scale production regionally, negating global long supply chain weaknesses. This means more people are getting essentials they need for a good life while reducing emissions and waste.
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Supply chains are inadequate and cause untold waste and suffering. Knowing this tells me we need to be smarter about distribution. AI can help us be just that - more intelligent about how we move stuff around. As we approach this utopian AI-enhanced world, events like flour, yeast, and TP shortages will become a thing of the past. So too will hunger and suffering, in the ideal. Getting there is, of course, the challenge. And a lot of pitfalls exist between here and utopia - pitfalls like evil machines taking over.
But let's hope not.
Until next time. Science. Fiction. Create.
JRC